Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11737d84524033444b10f894986caac7d27e4e1df58bdea08e371e6f0ba61c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 269.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 62c | 199.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 197.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 188.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 175.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 171.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 49c | 153.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 77c | 104.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 87.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 76c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 39c | 85.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 45.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 38.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 38c | 36.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 70c | 32.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 69c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 64c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 65c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 75c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.