Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118c05835e846e820ece621b30b31e81e992bb1c1ca2eb7262afaaf0a154721c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 24c | 4,000$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 73c | 1,838$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.86 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 1,508$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.95 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 665.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.65 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 24c | 639.63$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.37 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 17c | 606.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 369.92$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 351.39$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 76c | 307.63$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 282.5$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 102.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…6ab1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 70c | 67.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 49.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed No | 76c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 75c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
- Will NK Varaždin win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.