Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a2a2f296cfb2691eb54d1ef589edfabd4c5ee0282b4d5b4517c09088403808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…b45abacked Over | 24c | 802.61$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…f757backed Under | 76c | 802.61$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…25cabacked Under | 80c | 762.5$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5289…e8e5backed Over | 20c | 762.5$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 17c | 388.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…5b63backed Over | 24c | 352.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…54e9backed Under | 76c | 352.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 20c | 272$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 66c | 206.86$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 34c | 141.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 68c | 95.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 80c | 83.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 67c | 60.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.