Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8142ffa2b011ba2248d0deb9b3ece983813ece860ced3b00fdd82e2d125b527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 2,000$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 34c | 1,110$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.68 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 16c | 649.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.49 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 387.81$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 37c | 347.21$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 37c | 344.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 38c | 308$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…8e34backed Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Under | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 17cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 80c | 278.08$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2212…267ebacked Over | 41c | 244.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Over | 36c | 220.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 30c | 220$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 188.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 11c | 151.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d93abacked Over | 19c | 102.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 43c | 91.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 87.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 61c | 72.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 38c | 33.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked Under | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…fa37backed Under | 63c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.