Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42099bb5042075e8e7ca859d8bce4b10d18c00bb9959a2d063ef457e75546740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,180 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 59c | 16,143$9,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,559.62 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 6,693$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,701$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 40c | 1,531$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.51 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…caeebacked Under | 54c | 1,300$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 1,263$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Under | 43c | 680.5$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…41bbbacked Under | 10c | 599.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 61c | 508.2$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 471.67$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.67 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Under | 39c | 458.05$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 40c | 416$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 65c | 336.92$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 60c | 301$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 226$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 39c | 182.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b1…69d2backed Over | 52c | 180$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 10c | 112.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 48c | 109.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 104.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 41c | 91.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Over | 60c | 83.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 40c | 74.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 64.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…6314backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…0e0cbacked Under | 40c | 46.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Over | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 36c | 31.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 40c | 28.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.