NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b6c81c578508b4c8a944b8254d1c32efd6f00b7c208748fad4be8720ebc4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Senators, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Senators | 37c | 842.95$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.11 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae9…0801backed Red Wings | 65c | 621.97$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Red Wings | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Senators | 35c | 446.28$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Red Wings | 63c | 436.67$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Senators | 35c | 253.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Senators | 37c | 163$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Red Wings | 66c | 152.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Senators | 35c | 129.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 64c | 83.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Red Wings | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Senators | 38c | 63.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Senators | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Red Wings | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Red Wings | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. SenatorsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.