MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121c00f8bc403174ae9074aa54c9ba305f965e73e0074806bdf1eb5981d6d7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,555 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Toronto Blue Jays | 0c | 5,742$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 1,030$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 445$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 438.51$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 366.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 302.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 244.05$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 202.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 187.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 178.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 71.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 67.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 63.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 62.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 52.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 51.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…e938backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 43.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 35.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 28.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.