Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Luciano Darderi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122ca194d9ae38035e6b7186f99336f27880682ee309ee3fe7acd0001f4e7105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Nishioka, Darderi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nishioka | 0c | 16,296$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Nishioka | 41c | 4,510$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.17 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Darderi | 59c | 1,940$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.41 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Darderi | 61c | 1,408$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.11 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nishioka | 43c | 1,154$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.7 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Darderi | 41c | 1,023$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.49 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Darderi | 66c | 880$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.02 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nishioka | 42c | 495$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Darderi | 57c | 389.46$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Darderi | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Darderi | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Darderi | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Nishioka | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Darderi | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Darderi | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Nishioka | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nishioka | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nishioka | 38c | 37.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Darderi | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Darderi | 57c | 30.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Darderi | 58c | 29.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Nishioka | 42c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.