Movies · resolved market
Will "Supergirl" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x124607f4bc014fee8a7b644e4b388a5c13f30ce591fcfa737068514663ce6065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd58e…5b02backed Yes | 36c | 481.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 65c | 409.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 71c | 259.93$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…8bd7backed No | 66c | 211.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 33c | 178.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 70c | 76.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 39c | 63.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 32.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 63c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 66c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Supergirl" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Supergirl" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Supergirl" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Supergirl" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.