South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x124d277a3741ec89e3a0689b863ab5bbd7d0f40f44dcdb613618cf28337dcdb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,782 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 34c | 1,328$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.19 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.05 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 1,072$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.74 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 775.38$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 77c | 321$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 238.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…67ebbacked Over | 80c | 214.39$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 186.96$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 44c | 131.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 24c | 124.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…7432backed Over | 66c | 94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 90.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 46c | 87.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 48c | 86.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 65c | 81.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Under | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 47c | 67.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 57.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Over | 56c | 50.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 46c | 42.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 48c | 42.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 56c | 32.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 56c | 27.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 72c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.