TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,704 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c4,154$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.368,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over25c2,239$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.655819%11 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over56c1,528$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.8916543.6%72 W · 93 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over24c1,232$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.619630.6%60 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick31cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017146.2%79 W · 92 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under44c739.22$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.263,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x818c…b0adbacked Over45c503.69$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014654.1%79 W · 67 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2159…707ebacked Under48c491$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3717…5234backed Under48c491$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…848ebacked Over52c472.69$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b3…b83ebacked Over52c471.48$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d7…b03abacked Under48c460$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa799…df96backed Over52c459.31$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c456$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.1137851.3%194 W · 184 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under45c443.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.216647%78 W · 88 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x503e…465cbacked Under48c441$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6e…d908backed Over52c430.32$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a6…fc49backed Over52c422.63$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff1…105ebacked Over52c410.68$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7454…e0d1backed Under48c397$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b5…a6f1backed Under48c381$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5356…e1e4backed Under48c369$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over20c367.51$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.565,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe828…07eabacked Under48c361$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0725…4c4bbacked Over52c359.36$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb91d…585dbacked Over52c346.52$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe038…83f7backed Over52c343.64$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48b3…3811backed Over52c335.37$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f79…ec07backed Under48c334$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eae…f2ccbacked Under48c327$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over38c276.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10512645.2%57 W · 69 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over54c265.64$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.792,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under66c246.38$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3572350.5%365 W · 358 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over46c240.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11049341%202 W · 291 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Under46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.394141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under46c180$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.255155%303 W · 248 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a8f…7432backed Over57c168.42$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over54c150.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.517143.9%75 W · 96 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under41c148.19$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8828231.6%89 W · 193 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Under15c135$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.752020%4 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+247.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over48c118.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.827742.9%33 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under49c118.57$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0687…77bfbacked Over50c100.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569353.8%50 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4683642.9%359 W · 477 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3139127.1%106 W · 285 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Under19c92.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.461225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over50c86.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4376951.5%396 W · 373 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under46c71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3410033%33 W · 67 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2cf…65fdbacked Over74c67.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over60c65.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8426965.4%176 W · 93 L+48.9wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+40.5%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over56c64.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3635958.8%211 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Over29c63.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb0…466fbacked Under51c60.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.44652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Under29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8314443.1%62 W · 82 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Under45c59.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.572544%11 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Under66c58.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.961154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513335.3%47 W · 86 L-14.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under49c43.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.271,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Under46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2210943.1%47 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Under46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.222958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+34.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.224748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Over56c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.964247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Over61c40.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254740.4%19 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under46c40.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0324253.3%129 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.449449%242 W · 252 L+22.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under47c38.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6413050.8%66 W · 64 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Over56c35.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.934656.5%26 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc73b…c3e9backed Under51c34.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.263250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4796…79fcbacked Under47c34.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.184755.3%26 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x550d…f1ffbacked Under45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3310964.2%70 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c67…e838backed Under49c32.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.481040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under76c28.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.739162.6%57 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…05ddbacked Under43c27.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+58.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Over55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154566.7%30 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ea…95d1backed Under75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Under42c25.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb567…4d4abacked Under40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de7…61c0backed Over56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.782,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d1…356dbacked Under40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+93.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under68c24.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.735758%207 W · 150 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7753…cf56backed Under51c23.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.452528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under76c22.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.276056.7%34 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6330…1444backed Over61c21.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x976a…c12abacked Over57c18.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Over58c17.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.276149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd418…d11fbacked Over59c17.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.372050%10 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.