CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x125c6cd968dcd351dae6809a03b5f6999e3be983588d6619232320710c7a1e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1WINof 1WIN, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed 1WIN | 64c | 2,511$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905 | 211 | 56.9%120 W · 91 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Ursa | 26c | 1,943$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.8 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Ursa | 34c | 1,255$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.85 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1WIN | 75c | 1,214$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.94 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Ursa | 36c | 1,211$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Ursa | 39c | 1,119$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ursa | 3c | 980$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked 1WIN | 67c | 756.11$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.78 | 1,629 | 44.8%730 W · 899 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Ursa | 21c | 524$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1WIN | 65c | 498.59$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.56 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Ursa | 35c | 390$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ursa | 35c | 357.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…1c37backed 1WIN | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed 1WIN | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Ursa | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…0d30backed Ursa | 36c | 223.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ursa | 17c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed 1WIN | 64c | 157.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed 1WIN | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Ursa | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked 1WIN | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…7a59backed Ursa | 19c | 97.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Ursa | 35c | 84.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed 1WIN | 65c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4b…038abacked 1WIN | 80c | 75.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed Ursa | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…8a1cbacked Ursa | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9251…1fe5backed 1WIN | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ursa | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked 1WIN | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked 1WIN | 64c | 42.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1WIN | 68c | 40.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Ursa | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Ursa | 37c | 37.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed 1WIN | 78c | 37.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed 1WIN | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ursa | 30c | 36.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…0f4cbacked Ursa | 33c | 33.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 266 | 35.7%95 W · 171 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…c02bbacked Ursa | 34c | 31.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9109backed 1WIN | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9beb…c0dfbacked 1WIN | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…d820backed 1WIN | 65c | 27.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed 1WIN | 63c | 25.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner1WIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.