Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128c2c2383d6aa9aec8e04556312e3c808a23eb3db50072f4c3ecfd9f839ecbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 64c | 817.98$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.79 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 35c | 721.11$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.39 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…0743backed Yes | 11c | 252.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…4618backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 73c | 146.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…b086backed Yes | 43c | 108.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…1975backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ae34backed Yes | 28c | 51.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 65c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $385-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $415-$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$385 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.