CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs paiN (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c45139c5f33fd87675f5ee6b1a451d33d7d8b251226b1d234b1dca06ada928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Fluxo, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Fluxo | 30c | 18,311$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,493.3 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed paiN | 70c | 15,061$10,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.3 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Fluxo | 29c | 3,173$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.16 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed paiN | 70c | 2,750$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked paiN | 71c | 1,761$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.69 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked paiN | 67c | 1,018$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.35 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked paiN | 71c | 808$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.32 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked paiN | 71c | 597$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked paiN | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fluxo | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…a7aabacked Fluxo | 30c | 445.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed paiN | 70c | 228$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fluxo | 27c | 190$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Fluxo | 38c | 107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Fluxo | 16c | 94.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Fluxo | 16c | 94.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Fluxo | 16c | 94.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Fluxo | 16c | 94.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Fluxo | 23c | 84.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…5348backed Fluxo | 45c | 66.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Fluxo | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Fluxo | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Fluxo | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked paiN | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Fluxo | 37c | 45.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed paiN | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked paiN | 61c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed paiN | 61c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.