South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlas FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1306849180ce1412ad0fb16e5f539d069a340a23543bd481e38ab819c5dc59ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,950 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 17,452$10,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,807.03 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 11,947$4,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,976.61 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 3,504$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.2 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 39c | 2,750$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.07 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 1,178$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.34 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 52c | 864.45$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.15 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 44c | 657.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.79 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 527.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.15 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 80c | 279$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 24c | 230.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked No | 47c | 195.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 36c | 190$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Yes | 69c | 136.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 74c | 134.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 18c | 126$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 19c | 120.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 38c | 114.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 107.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 97.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 21c | 92.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 31c | 74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 18c | 62.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 35c | 60.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Yes | 55c | 36.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 46c | 36.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 44c | 28.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlas FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.