MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x130d6a1282d26faa75fea2178ecdb50efdf363fcba6c036c32c4a2cd11ee1d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Under | 38c | 1,625$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.89 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 62c | 1,111$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.18 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 63c | 479.49$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 38c | 299.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 59c | 111.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Over | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 37c | 96.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0225…0324backed Over | 61c | 73.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…d4aabacked Under | 38c | 70.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…d9febacked Under | 43c | 69.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 60c | 68.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4f…3463backed Under | 40c | 68.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 39c | 65.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 62c | 57.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b16fbacked Under | 39c | 44.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…e78fbacked Under | 40c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ba…fbd8backed Under | 38c | 41.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…6bf3backed Over | 63c | 41.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…dc4fbacked Over | 63c | 41.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…5fbbbacked Over | 63c | 40.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…f90cbacked Over | 64c | 40.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…e207backed Under | 40c | 39.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…ae5bbacked Over | 62c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Over | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c0…14a1backed Over | 63c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…f568backed Over | 64c | 38.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bb…4405backed Over | 64c | 38.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1f…acc2backed Under | 39c | 36.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…e9aebacked Over | 64c | 27.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Diamondbacks vs. BrewersDiamondbacks won
- Spread: Brewers (-1.5)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.