Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131f7efb0668efbd39a7e9417d39197e53c85a91006f60f46f58038b2b3365d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 16c | 395$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 36c | 364.41$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 44c | 287.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 16c | 279.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.46 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked Yes | 76c | 187.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 15c | 178$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 67c | 174.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 66c | 172.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 133.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 80c | 127.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 63c | 95.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 57c | 83.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 71c | 80.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…7a04backed No | 34c | 74.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 70c | 72.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 26c | 55.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 72c | 48.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…697cbacked No | 72c | 48.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 72c | 46.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 43.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 61c | 39.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 38.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 35c | 38.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 41c | 32.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 68c | 30.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 68c | 27.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed Yes | 41c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 24.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 20.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 70c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 77c | 19.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…d92cbacked Yes | 67c | 19.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 15.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.