MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ad2ff916410333dfc862fac4c86a9921a09a9d861894189411755aa6d243a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 2,402$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.15 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 2,368$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.98 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 2,214$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.74 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Minnesota Twins | 19c | 2,158$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 1,443$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.14 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 1,036$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.08 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 807.06$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.06 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 692.58$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.24 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…9c51backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 621.91$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.64 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 505.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.85 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 10c | 305$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 252$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 203.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 96.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Minnesota Twins | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 37.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 34.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…2d9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 21.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.