Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d0e65bce3501a6a76d73343e9be9c57067371d246d42c237ffe81f17f58835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 1c | 7,518$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…715dbacked Up | 31c | 3,160$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…d9c8backed Down | 69c | 3,160$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Down | 73c | 1,685$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.29 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Up | 26c | 994$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.26 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…14fabacked Up | 29c | 559.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed Down | 78c | 285.5$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Up | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f54…e9e9backed Up | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 35cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 64c | 178.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Down | 59c | 156.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156a…dd4bbacked Up | 40c | 151.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…3ea4backed Up | 74c | 135.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…dbbabacked Down | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Up | 19c | 70.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Up | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…7c51backed Up | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…c532backed Down | 59c | 39.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Down | 70c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.