Tennis · resolved market
ITF W75 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Women: Darya Astakhova vs Lea Nilsson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143b9dab7d1053c512fab78c67bd4fb20261cd20357d64c152942768db4026f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darya Astakhovaof Darya Astakhova, Lea Nilsson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Lea Nilsson | 26c | 680.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Lea Nilsson | 30c | 431$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Darya Astakhova | 74c | 405$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lea Nilsson | 26c | 317.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lea Nilsson | 50c | 195.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Darya Astakhova | 78c | 154$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lea Nilsson | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Lea Nilsson | 23c | 135.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4432…1a32backed Lea Nilsson | 24c | 123.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 150 | 79.3%119 W · 31 L | +17.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Lea Nilsson | 25c | 118.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Darya Astakhova | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Darya Astakhova | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Darya Astakhova | 46c | 47.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Darya Astakhova | 51c | 45.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Lea Nilsson | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Lea Nilsson | 45c | 38.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Darya Astakhova | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.