World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1453218dfbf7fb76bb683e7639fb3cbb3f05b885947d1ed17f61978714cc02e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 1,081$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 32c | 147.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 117.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 36c | 109.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 98.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 54c | 89.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 14c | 85.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 81.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 27c | 78.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 78.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 36c | 73.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 36c | 70.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…b3c3backed Yes | 33c | 68.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 63.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 57.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 50c | 57.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 44c | 55.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…1439backed Yes | 52c | 47.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 41.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 37.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 36.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 35.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 70c | 35.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 70c | 35.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 40c | 28.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.