UFC · resolved market
Jones-Aspinall date announced before February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b965ad4681ae74112ed35945ef111dc9c03442bc7750422906f8bbb167138a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7073…420cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,632$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…f4abbacked Yes | 9c | 1,139$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 8c | 656.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 6c | 604.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 6c | 499.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 5c | 475$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5e5backed Yes | 7c | 358.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 6c | 228.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 7c | 225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 218.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…1116backed Yes | 6c | 176$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…49febacked Yes | 19c | 106.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…6673backed Yes | 23c | 86.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed No | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed No | 78c | 49.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked No | 80c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.