Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c08a8784b7070503eb219e7f91851b9d467d5baf9ce9fe4e11fa5032286837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 12c | 4,172$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.84 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 26c | 1,149$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 822.32$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.18 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 77c | 699.99$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed Over | 26c | 321.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…be3bbacked Under | 50c | 205.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…fb69backed Under | 50c | 202.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…e2bfbacked Under | 50c | 200.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…4366backed Under | 50c | 198.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…e5babacked Under | 50c | 198.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…353ebacked Under | 50c | 197.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…5303backed Under | 50c | 197.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…d4bfbacked Under | 50c | 196.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…6ebfbacked Under | 50c | 195.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…0eb8backed Under | 50c | 195.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…2c78backed Under | 50c | 193.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…4666backed Under | 50c | 192.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…9931backed Under | 50c | 186.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…b297backed Under | 50c | 182.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed Under | 50c | 177.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 24c | 159.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…9ff2backed Over | 24c | 152.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 102.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 87.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 73c | 58.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 24c | 51.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 75c | 41.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Over | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 79c | 26.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.