TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over40c15,008$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,038.8527837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c4,245$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.393,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Under55c3,149$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.754656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1813053.1%69 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47055750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47068550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under54c869.47$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.0697146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e01…0875backed Under54c725.93$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.931266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over15c299.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.43636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under55c290.45$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.74959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under54c283.45$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4722263.1%140 W · 82 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under54c278$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8813046.2%60 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under54c231.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9758043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010853.7%58 W · 50 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under53c217.23$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7342947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905050%25 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over46c195.65$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under54c185.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3324859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Under55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.823046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.82634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over48c179.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9624351.4%125 W · 118 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3f0…9384backed Over45c166.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd7…934abacked Under50c146.74$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0836…3057backed Under50c145.61$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9879…0a36backed Under50c144.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…1cb4backed Under50c144.07$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae6…b2ccbacked Under50c143.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a0…0579backed Under50c143.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c20…d23dbacked Under50c142.85$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0b…49f2backed Under50c142.63$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x426d…2962backed Under50c142.56$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.28425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6328…f86ebacked Under50c142.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9c…e080backed Under50c142$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b06…3ef9backed Under50c141.57$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…e3e1backed Under50c141.2$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cb…9113backed Under50c141.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8602…fd48backed Under50c140.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533a…1676backed Under50c139.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2181…32b2backed Under50c139.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e35…beabbacked Under50c138.48$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+48.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48a5…b17fbacked Under50c138.35$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9f…6d55backed Under50c137.98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.99450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec2a…ce7fbacked Under50c137.94$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e09…0fc3backed Under50c137.87$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd7…834dbacked Under50c137.76$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d6…6f37backed Under50c137.76$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce86…d315backed Under50c137.74$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b6…e145backed Under50c137.74$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ef…e9fbbacked Under50c137.72$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…43fbbacked Under50c137.65$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54a…c7c0backed Under50c137.59$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b1…65bfbacked Under50c137.53$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb479…cdcabacked Under50c137.52$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ab0…0b80backed Under50c137.48$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff6…2ff7backed Under50c137.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c2f…27afbacked Under50c137.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5d…0fbfbacked Under50c137.23$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…9f58backed Under50c137.2$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…d1f6backed Under50c137.2$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x555a…8792backed Under50c137.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4e…669dbacked Under50c137.16$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac2…6908backed Under50c137.16$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0937…99dfbacked Under50c137.13$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ca…76f2backed Under50c136.82$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…7ca5backed Under50c135.66$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ce…5893backed Under50c135.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…2b84backed Under50c135.05$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20e…ff0bbacked Under50c134.63$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43a4…821dbacked Under50c134.45$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe42…8e5cbacked Under50c134.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.19771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb624…e0fabacked Under50c134.28$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f60…3ab8backed Under50c134.12$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351f…ccb4backed Under50c133.82$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…57babacked Under50c133.13$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ef…0754backed Under50c132.82$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbf…7007backed Under50c132.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc5…f09fbacked Under50c132.29$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa55…9d17backed Under50c132.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.05450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1231…9019backed Under50c130.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c7a…13f0backed Under50c130.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under54c127.42$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.622927.6%8 W · 21 L-7.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-57.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9f1e…009abacked Under50c125.23$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe147…06d2backed Under50c125.08$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4413243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under53c97.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6777751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over27c94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7528721.6%62 W · 225 L-29.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1508…5760backed Over46c86.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under54c77.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7619255.2%106 W · 86 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over48c74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2610353.4%55 W · 48 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over45c71.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.091,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under64c70.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.436051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under54c68.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6219056.3%107 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under55c66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5182044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under54c59.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.515458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Under51c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9911441.2%47 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Under53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.58853.4%47 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under55c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1514560.7%88 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under54c44.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6112254.1%66 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under54c44.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3114151.8%73 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.