Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14cce311238af87ccad04c5931fc4b4a4bd579c9a93614b809a20a834404da16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 75c | 862.33$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 647.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 356.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 299.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 288.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 277.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…a13cbacked Yes | 16c | 244.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 210.76$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 145.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 10c | 132.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 77c | 129.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 22c | 127.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 111.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 111.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 103.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 93.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 27c | 91.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 15c | 91.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 87.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 23c | 76.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 73c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 80c | 58.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 38.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…a502backed No | 77c | 31.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 74c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 77c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 77c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 79c | 12.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.