Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Pellegrino (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15099569ccd1210d80c70635201263c5a59415605da6b125922dea76371cba40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pellegrinoof Darderi, Pellegrino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Darderi | 66c | 3,764$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.61 | 246 | 43.9%108 W · 138 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pellegrino | 27c | 1,489$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.13 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pellegrino | 34c | 876.79$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.58 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…e7b3backed Pellegrino | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Pellegrino | 34c | 357.92$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Pellegrino | 35c | 299.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.76 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…71a1backed Pellegrino | 34c | 299.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Darderi | 66c | 187.61$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 247 | 59.9%148 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Pellegrino | 32c | 155.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Darderi | 66c | 151.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Pellegrino | 34c | 144.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Pellegrino | 34c | 134.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Pellegrino | 34c | 121.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…5599backed Pellegrino | 34c | 83.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Pellegrino | 36c | 83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pellegrino | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0436…f431backed Darderi | 66c | 76.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Darderi | 69c | 76.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…0df7backed Pellegrino | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Darderi | 67c | 58.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Darderi | 67c | 51.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Pellegrino | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Pellegrino | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pellegrino | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Pellegrino | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 2,445 | 51.6%1,262 W · 1,183 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Darderi | 67c | 37.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…f88bbacked Pellegrino | 35c | 35.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked Pellegrino | 34c | 34.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…bb3abacked Darderi | 66c | 30.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Pellegrino | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Darderi | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Darderi | 54c | 23.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 218 | 59.2%129 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Pellegrino (+1.5)this page
- Andrea Pellegrino vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Chile Open: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luciano DarderiLuciano Darderi won
- Pellegrino vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Pellegrino vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Pellegrino vs DarderiDarderi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.