Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1509c6df1aff46cc3bfabe64795ae913fa41dd43216ebc87fc35fbad2ec9fdcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Over | 55c | 15,789$8,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,156.21 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Under | 45c | 14,066$6,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,380.6 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.99 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 52c | 4,287$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.09 | 1,502 | 50.3%756 W · 746 L | +71.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 45c | 4,195$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.17 | 1,320 | 38.6%510 W · 810 L | -66.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Under | 49c | 2,533$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.75 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Under | 44c | 1,842$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.8 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed Under | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.9 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Under | 44c | 946.78$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.98 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Under | 45c | 363.16$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 215 | 40%86 W · 129 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Under | 46c | 342.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 45c | 210.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 43c | 141.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Over | 56c | 85.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 963 | 48.7%469 W · 494 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Over | 55c | 70.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 461 | 54.9%253 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 54c | 65.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 536 | 49.8%267 W · 269 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 40c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,399 | 44.9%628 W · 771 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 54c | 32.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,608 | 17.5%282 W · 1,326 L | -245.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…9f16backed Over | 69c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Over | 60c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Top Esports won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)Top Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.