NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kraken (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15247cbd5e5f9a59553c7552bbcdf9b21c036142e624ad3e8758b134a98f17cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Kraken, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Sharks | 64c | 12,400$7,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,495.18 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kraken | 36c | 8,768$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.49 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kraken | 39c | 1,330$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.6 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kraken | 37c | 1,180$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.51 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Kraken | 36c | 625.48$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.17 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Kraken | 40c | 262$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Kraken | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sharks | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Kraken | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Kraken | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sharks | 60c | 135.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sharks | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Kraken | 37c | 126.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kraken | 40c | 86.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Kraken | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c0…071bbacked Kraken | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Kraken | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. KrakenSharks won
- Sharks vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.