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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c481.09$87 inLost-$87.2210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed Yes23c403.24$92 inLost-$92.137652.4%197 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed Yes17c321.62$54 inLost-$54.115930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No79c184$146 inWon+$38.2622771.8%163 W · 64 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes14c166$24 inLost-$24.012,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes18c159$29 inLost-$28.621,82662.9%1,149 W · 677 L-8.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes19c139.3$26 inLost-$26.3860032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c119$91 inWon+$27.715,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost-$1345630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73e…4b96backed Yes16c88.32$15 inLost-$14.514447.7%21 W · 23 L+8.2wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+59.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$103426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes19c62.02$12 inLost-$11.774,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes19c55.1$10 inLost-$10.2513351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c50.11$39 inWon+$10.725,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No77c38$29 inWon+$8.746666.7%44 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No80c29.42$23 inWon+$62,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e5…49a3backed No79c17.05$14 inWon+$3.541258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.