Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4590c48a315fb1bb2e18af5a89a924baf44dffa1e84daea59e68cb81cafb1b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 340.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 301.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 76c | 298$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 66c | 296.61$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 230.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 209.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed No | 42c | 155.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 151.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 24c | 131.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 31c | 130.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 29c | 102.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 44c | 98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 69c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 60.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 23c | 60.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 80c | 60.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 75c | 53.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 50.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 34.1%57 W · 110 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 77c | 47.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 37.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa13c…d9dbbacked No | 80c | 33.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 59c | 23.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 75c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed Yes | 54c | 18.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 68c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 77c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 74c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…b2e6backed No | 78c | 13.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.