South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15837673fda95e8a7f37a6e4625f2afa714502fd5339289d97c686b35f4617d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 3,207$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.86 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 38c | 2,684$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.83 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 38c | 1,059$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 397.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 62c | 337.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…9612backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 177.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 38c | 130.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…09ddbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 38c | 105.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 37c | 80.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 62c | 78.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…8194backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…e91dbacked Yes | 38c | 30.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…170abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148d…9001backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 71c | 29.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked No | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-03?this page
- Will CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-12-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.