South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15bf8fcee90b563c38b27209c293c1dd00a2a7c69cce0c3b87d491ec737f4ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 3,460$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 654.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 607.4$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 27c | 552.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 432.45$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 57c | 336.86$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 31c | 336.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 35c | 211.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Over | 72c | 188.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb738…a483backed Over | 65c | 153.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…e6d7backed Over | 69c | 122.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 27c | 92.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +67%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 64c | 61.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 41c | 60.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over | 57c | 54.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.