South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba8b366612c2c9bf7c348690ee729014d32212292b21f52022c6abca4e9195e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 25c | 5,010$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.65 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 3,364$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.76 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed No | 56c | 2,454$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.58 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 1,320$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,053$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.19 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6d…468dbacked Yes | 47c | 440.85$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 44c | 428.71$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Yes | 44c | 403.25$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 49c | 188.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 54c | 161$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 24c | 159.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 44c | 154.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 52c | 143.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 54c | 139.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 46c | 139.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 54c | 126.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 44c | 126.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 53c | 123.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed No | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 55c | 91.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 75c | 80.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 44c | 70.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 44c | 49.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 44c | 43.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…3733backed Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.