La Liga · resolved market
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c9822ee31c036965b62b79bef0cb091c78265f21daa741af9d563abd3dad03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 27c | 1,249$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.51 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 1,161$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.83 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 28c | 1,025$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 72c | 977.52$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 553.26$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 76c | 502.45$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 76c | 482.56$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.86 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 18c | 466.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 76c | 391.73$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 76c | 383.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 3c | 380.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 74c | 379.36$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 202.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 28c | 175.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 72c | 138.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 178 | 56.7%101 W · 77 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 27c | 134.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 76c | 130.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…b159backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 19c | 77.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 75c | 69.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 50.7%75 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…2c36backed Over | 25c | 48.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…a287backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 72c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Under | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)Real Zaragoza won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5)Real Zaragoza won
- Spread: Real Zaragoza (-1.5)Real Zaragoza won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.