Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fc20013eb02be70b8c0c1752700b4510b1976857ffbc8db7f151a0d0e44a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 20c | 240.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 156.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 148$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 139.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 79c | 127.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 74c | 119.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 69c | 117.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 51c | 116.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 96.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 69.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 37c | 63.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 18c | 62.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 45c | 52.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 58c | 51.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 71c | 50.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 36c | 37.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 42c | 35.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 21.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 80c | 18.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 16.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.