La Liga · resolved market
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fcb30320500b04e2c1726507df4f9f695b21b34090ef636ee246934a418d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ec0…497bbacked Yes | 54c | 993.85$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 6c | 830.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 826.25$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.71 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 31c | 496.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 391.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.61 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 23c | 212.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 129.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed No | 48c | 94.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Yes | 22c | 84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 52c | 53.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 51c | 43.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 39c | 32.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 18.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Málaga CF win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Real Sporting de Gijón vs. Málaga CF end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.