Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x160093b32439018f26d6537534a8897998e99a98d8243599279d26e793829ae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,411 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec97…1cfabacked Yes | 20c | 378.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5289…e8e5backed No | 80c | 378.88$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…b064backed No | 80c | 289.35$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…43b1backed Yes | 20c | 289.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…5a8fbacked Yes | 23c | 174.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934b…b9c1backed No | 77c | 174.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 20c | 170.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 22c | 98.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 23c | 69.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 286 | 61.2%175 W · 111 L | +43.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 58c | 43.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1,816 | 48.9%888 W · 928 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 70c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $220-$225 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.