Other European Leagues · resolved market
Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161ceed006515f7ee31a066e0c18f8fec48d4859f588e93fa652212738b6d6d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 52c | 1,652$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 1,269$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.36 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 7c | 772.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 59c | 448.61$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 420.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 46c | 217.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 37c | 215.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 58c | 198.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 20c | 132.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 73c | 123.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 44c | 108.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 61c | 92.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Under | 39c | 90.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 53c | 74.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 65c | 58.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 73c | 55.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 62 | 72.6%45 W · 17 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 47c | 44.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…fb78backed Over | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…e38ebacked Under | 55c | 18.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 0.5this page
- Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 1.5Under won
- Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Moreirense FC (-1.5)AVS Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.