Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1642f202f3d6cd96dac6e5d53faf7f78263b04056f1b8b4027d078bd754530ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,108$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -11.7wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 47c | 665.72$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.59 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Yes | 54c | 560.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 47c | 526.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.68 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Yes | 53c | 405.66$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 53c | 374.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…ac2cbacked Yes | 38c | 305.59$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 262.31$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked No | 48c | 222$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 53c | 207$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked No | 47c | 163.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 46c | 154$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 128.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 53c | 122$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…1307backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 47c | 36.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 182 | 53.8%98 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…7e29backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma leading at halftime?this page
- Hellas Verona FC leading at halftime?No won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.