Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164a1677ccc109ac29c95275b2952e11461483f04f3445321b2acf36283852b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 10c | 126.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 76c | 98.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 81.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 56c | 78.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 73.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 19c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 73c | 66.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 39c | 66.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 66.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 52.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 51.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 50.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…6df6backed No | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 71c | 43.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 61c | 42.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes | 52c | 39.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 38.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 41c | 36.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 51c | 36.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…3b53backed No | 70c | 29.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed Yes | 72c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 57c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.