TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New Mexico Lobosof New Mexico Lobos, Saint Joseph's Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,216 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Saint Joseph's Hawks48c62,929$30,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,205.743842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe248…f293backed New Mexico Lobos52c57,846$30,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,778.8378155.6%434 W · 347 L+38.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New Mexico Lobos52c7,586$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.282,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Saint Joseph's Hawks49c1,016$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Saint Joseph's Hawks47c768.12$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.025,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Saint Joseph's Hawks50c473.55$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.585,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed New Mexico Lobos53c280.55$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.869151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Saint Joseph's Hawks48c276.09$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5213356.4%75 W · 58 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed New Mexico Lobos55c242.97$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.157452.7%39 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Saint Joseph's Hawks42c206.22$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1425145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be5…603dbacked New Mexico Lobos53c187.03$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed New Mexico Lobos58c175$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.557448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Saint Joseph's Hawks49c152.65$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.86251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed New Mexico Lobos53c148.69$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8921850.5%110 W · 108 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Saint Joseph's Hawks44c141.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0893941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Saint Joseph's Hawks49c98.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1711456.1%64 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Saint Joseph's Hawks49c89.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.714858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Saint Joseph's Hawks45c78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.150548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked New Mexico Lobos52c74.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6930152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Saint Joseph's Hawks54c61.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.054334.9%15 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed New Mexico Lobos44c54.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5325544.3%113 W · 142 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed New Mexico Lobos53c52.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.613354.5%18 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New Mexico Lobos44c51.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.994,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…2e2abacked New Mexico Lobos53c46.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.984259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b7f…7e25backed Saint Joseph's Hawks48c45.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked New Mexico Lobos52c42.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.38549.4%42 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Saint Joseph's Hawks48c41.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9417551.4%90 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked New Mexico Lobos52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.213147.3%62 W · 69 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed New Mexico Lobos45c38.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.041,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa9a3…f319backed Saint Joseph's Hawks48c38.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed New Mexico Lobos53c37.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.584847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked New Mexico Lobos53c37.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.582759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked New Mexico Lobos53c36.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1769350.4%349 W · 344 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Saint Joseph's Hawks49c30.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked New Mexico Lobos56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.239045.6%41 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New Mexico Lobos52c29.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.361652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe88a…1c9ebacked New Mexico Lobos52c29.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4866…855ebacked Saint Joseph's Hawks48c28.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed New Mexico Lobos53c25.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.211546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Saint Joseph's Hawks48c21.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35954.2%32 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed New Mexico Lobos61c19.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7733445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.