Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1651d725a139cb64ac0faa7e64828a4fd3ee1661fe5fd684777e62bf42a47a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba38…fb57backed Inner Circle | 19c | 25,000$4,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,644.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Inner Circle | 8c | 3,676$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.21 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Inner Circle | 5c | 2,149$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Inner Circle | 17c | 1,432$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Inner Circle | 9c | 1,423$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0452…843cbacked Inner Circle | 3c | 1,288$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed LGD Gaming | 63c | 1,000$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Inner Circle | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Inner Circle | 17c | 972.12$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Inner Circle | 13c | 963.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Inner Circle | 9c | 662$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle | 6c | 511.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…b19cbacked LGD Gaming | 68c | 509.82$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed LGD Gaming | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Inner Circle | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Inner Circle | 9c | 447.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Inner Circle | 9c | 447.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Inner Circle | 10c | 427$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Inner Circle | 17c | 413.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed LGD Gaming | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed LGD Gaming | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +11.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…3540backed LGD Gaming | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed LGD Gaming | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…9b19backed LGD Gaming | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Inner Circle | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed LGD Gaming | 66c | 380$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked LGD Gaming | 67c | 360$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Inner Circle | 6c | 280$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed LGD Gaming | 66c | 270$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed LGD Gaming | 72c | 230$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked LGD Gaming | 74c | 219.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Inner Circle | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked LGD Gaming | 72c | 166$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked LGD Gaming | 72c | 166$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…226cbacked LGD Gaming | 72c | 166$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Inner Circle | 16c | 162.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…87f4backed LGD Gaming | 64c | 138$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +13.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Inner Circle | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Inner Circle | 17c | 117.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked LGD Gaming | 77c | 110.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Inner Circle | 14c | 108.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…b262backed Inner Circle | 17c | 103.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Inner Circle | 15c | 72.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed LGD Gaming | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed LGD Gaming | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.