Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ed0e6855525676e53a51d62ed63721019eda2333b07de8ae5007891b596bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Inner Circle | 14c | 25,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…3624backed Inner Circle | 18c | 5,607$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Inner Circle | 10c | 4,950$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.11 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Inner Circle | 13c | 4,173$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.01 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Inner Circle | 11c | 3,630$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.3 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Inner Circle | 11c | 3,548$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.53 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Inner Circle | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Inner Circle | 12c | 2,110$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Inner Circle | 9c | 1,781$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Inner Circle | 2c | 1,575$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Inner Circle | 12c | 1,546$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Inner Circle | 11c | 1,340$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Inner Circle | 17c | 1,337$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Inner Circle | 11c | 1,109$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Inner Circle | 11c | 1,008$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…158ebacked Inner Circle | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 61.7%145 W · 90 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Inner Circle | 11c | 961.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Inner Circle | 11c | 909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Inner Circle | 11c | 756$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Inner Circle | 15c | 695.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Inner Circle | 7c | 661.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0452…843cbacked Inner Circle | 4c | 614.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle | 12c | 556.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Inner Circle | 17c | 501.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Inner Circle | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Inner Circle | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Inner Circle | 12c | 356.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Inner Circle | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Inner Circle | 4c | 279.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…87d0backed Inner Circle | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Inner Circle | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Inner Circle | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Inner Circle | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…b585backed Inner Circle | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…b262backed Inner Circle | 17c | 103.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.