Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Daniel Altmaier vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x165bad473553286ed948fcd681be1a73551cfc8df120f77857ff89902cef1f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Altmaier, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Altmaier | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Shapovalov | 74c | 2,976$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.64 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Shapovalov | 69c | 2,715$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.3 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shapovalov | 68c | 2,587$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.18 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Shapovalov | 62c | 2,498$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.31 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Altmaier | 27c | 1,483$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.76 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Altmaier | 26c | 1,147$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.47 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shapovalov | 55c | 1,039$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Shapovalov | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Altmaier | 27c | 768.05$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.02 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Altmaier | 33c | 608.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.79 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Altmaier | 78c | 431.11$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Altmaier | 37c | 327.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.29 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Shapovalov | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Altmaier | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Shapovalov | 17c | 223.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Shapovalov | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Altmaier | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Altmaier | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Shapovalov | 73c | 140.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shapovalov | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Altmaier | 34c | 135.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Altmaier | 30c | 123.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Shapovalov | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Altmaier | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Altmaier | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Altmaier | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Shapovalov | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked Shapovalov | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shapovalov | 71c | 90.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Altmaier | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Shapovalov | 74c | 32.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Altmaier | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Shapovalov | 69c | 15.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.