UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x165c25ae32931676fa6067ba0e8df5ffd00c12502b82df7dedb5db9b4a563ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 1,348$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.01 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 51c | 981.63$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.63 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Over | 47c | 848.3$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…c1f2backed Over | 51c | 589.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 49c | 486.11$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.11 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 49c | 405.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 381.69$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.03 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 51c | 298.51$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 56c | 244.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 54c | 117$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 105.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 92.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 56c | 62.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…e743backed Over | 50c | 62.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 36.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…4280backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)Ikram Aliskerov won
- Will Ikram Aliskerov win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.