NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals Winner: Celtics vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x166ef8a14442f6c1dd88c5fda30f3b2a4294f7fead2220351cdb67d909af43a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Mavericks | 4c | 5,201$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 13c | 4,203$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.3 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Mavericks | 7c | 2,476$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…b579backed Mavericks | 34c | 1,708$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Celtics | 77c | 1,050$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Mavericks | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…11f2backed Mavericks | 4c | 557.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545e…72f7backed Mavericks | 6c | 476.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4908…99babacked Mavericks | 24c | 419.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…f025backed Mavericks | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…73acbacked Celtics | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…cbc1backed Celtics | 77c | 310$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc077…dab3backed Mavericks | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…530abacked Mavericks | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8569…dc8abacked Mavericks | 22c | 231.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Celtics | 67c | 195.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…1815backed Mavericks | 31c | 138.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f96…7a8abacked Mavericks | 24c | 104.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…a8e8backed Mavericks | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032c…6d9dbacked Mavericks | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…12a9backed Mavericks | 33c | 54.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf181…fb10backed Celtics | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.