Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ab04e1b3966e341ec54ed258373ec62a801e9fdd4edab0983694c1c58cbdb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc01b…7718backed Yes | 65c | 8,768$5,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 3,872$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.41 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed No | 37c | 3,419$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.42 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 1,559$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.65 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 43c | 1,367$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.85 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 43c | 1,327$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.14 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.04 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.23 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 67c | 745.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.81 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 37c | 512.76$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 301.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.52 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 68c | 287.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.18 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 32c | 137.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 117.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 32c | 105.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 44c | 100.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 33c | 99.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 24c | 97.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 32c | 89.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 41c | 73.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed No | 35c | 71.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 26c | 66.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 26c | 60.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 26c | 51.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked No | 61c | 50.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked No | 76c | 46.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 31.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 64c | 26.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 14.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-01?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.