La Liga · resolved market
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ea567b37f58331f42e66c677e98b8304596506c5ab30287268a6ef67f27fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 52c | 510.7$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 50c | 221.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked Yes | 52c | 188.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 53c | 187.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…48d4backed Yes | 47c | 174.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 48c | 155.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 46c | 93.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…762abacked No | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Yes | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8139backed Yes | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed No | 54c | 50.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 46c | 41.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 46c | 30.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 46c | 25.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…4664backed Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.