La Liga · resolved market
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94186dab55bbeda45f72ef1517c8fae01eabd06666e872138f4bc6fcbfd34a1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Yes | 66c | 7,384$4,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked No | 34c | 6,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed No | 33c | 1,611$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.73 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 143 | 48.3%69 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 32c | 886.98$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.06 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Yes | 69c | 712.86$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes | 68c | 499.31$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 66c | 445.27$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 34c | 327.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…546bbacked Yes | 65c | 308.15$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked Yes | 66c | 296.85$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed No | 34c | 263.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 66c | 256$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Yes | 68c | 206.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…ff59backed Yes | 66c | 149.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked No | 35c | 142.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 31c | 101.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed No | 34c | 98.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 65c | 66.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed No | 29c | 66.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 65c | 59.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 33c | 56.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…d695backed No | 32c | 56.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 34c | 51.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…5770backed Yes | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 67c | 43.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed No | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…d3b3backed Yes | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…29b3backed Yes | 70c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Yes | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…f7e2backed Yes | 68c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 68c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.