Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Leeds United vs. Millwall (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1755114f3c62305c0e9f04ccbe8e5f7ec1af4955c7a174fa25c323b044f963d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Millwallof Leeds, Millwall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Millwall | 26c | 17,382$4,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,874.16 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Leeds | 75c | 9,825$7,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,353.25 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Leeds | 73c | 5,007$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.8 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Leeds | 16c | 1,845$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Millwall | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 211 | 53.1%112 W · 99 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Leeds | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Leeds | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Leeds | 8c | 856.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Leeds | 74c | 808$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.04 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Leeds | 73c | 675$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.9 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Leeds | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Leeds | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Leeds | 74c | 202$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Leeds | 74c | 202$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Leeds | 73c | 175$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Millwall | 31c | 162.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Leeds | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Leeds | 79c | 80.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Millwall | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Leeds | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.